The Grand Size of the AI Supply Chain 🔗

Quantifying the hidden software complexity behind compound AI systems

Carmine Cesarano and Martin Monperrus
KTH Royal Institute of Technology
{cesarano, monperrus}@kth.se

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Infrastructure in motion
Artifacts and transformations flowing through the five layers of the AI supply chain
Artifacts in flight
How to read this
Each moving packet is an artifact — a concrete, persistent object produced and consumed in the supply chain. Diamonds are trained artifacts (model checkpoints, fine-tuned models): their behavior is encoded in learned parameters and cannot be inferred from inspection. Squares are data artifacts (datasets, corpora, vector indexes). Circles are deterministic artifacts (configs, container images, logs, prompts): inspectable and logic-defined. When a packet arrives at a node, the node flashes and shows the transformation applied there — the process that produces the next artifact from the current one. Dashed lines are permanent dependency edges, present even when no artifact is in transit. Toggle Trust boundaries to overlay the organizational actors: when a packet crosses a boundary it flashes — a supply chain handoff between independently managed infrastructures.